In case you didn't hear, James Gunn's The Suicide Squad didn't have a great opening weekend at the box office.
It opened to $26.5 million, under the industry expectations that predicted that it would pull in around $30 million. For a movie that cost $185 million to produce, and at least tens of millions more to market, that doesn’t look good on the surface. Some analysts called it a disaster; are movie theaters dead? Can a DC movie succeed without Batman or Superman? Are people over Harley Quinn?
Well, not so fast. Sure, $26.5 million for a movie this big would be pretty abysmal in Normal Times, but we’re far from those, and now, the measure of whether or not a film is successful goes far beyond the box office horse race. One of the major reasons that The Suicide Squad failed to pull in the numbers of a movie like F9, which grossed $70 million in its opening weekend, is the same reason it might not be such a flop: it opened day-and-date on HBO Max for free to subscribers.
So maybe Warner Bros. just shot itself in the foot by making The Suicide Squad so readily available online, right? Not exactly. When HBO Max launched in May 2020, it entered a streaming fray that’s more competitive than ever, with Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Paramount+, Peacock, and more all competing for consumers’ hard-earned cash. Even with WB’s extensive library, making a streaming service indispensable in an environment that’s this jam-packed with options is no small task.
So Warner Bros. gave HBO Max something that no other streaming service had: it announced that all of its 2021 theatrical releases would arrive on HBO Max on the same day they hit theaters. The unprecedented move rocked the industry, spurring backlash from theater owners, filmmakers, production companies, and entertainment guilds alike — but it’s hard to deny that getting Wonder Woman 1984, Mortal Kombat, Godzilla vs. Kong, In the Heights, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and a lot more for free on the day the movie hits theaters makes that $10 or $15/month subscription cost a heck of a lot more justifiable.
It’s hard to quantify just how much that affected consumers’ decisions to subscribe (and stay subscribed) to HBO Max, but the streamer’s numbers have risen since. HBO and HBO Max ended Q2 of 2021 with a combined 67.5 million subscribers globally, up 12 million over last year. Though those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as they don’t make the distinction between HBO and HBO Max, HBO Max’s direct-to-consumer revenue did increase 39% year-over-year, bringing in $2 billion for Q2. Even for a behemoth like WB, that’s not chump change.
There’s no way that Warner Bros. didn’t plan to take a hit at the box office when the studio made that decision, but that added value to its streaming service is pretty priceless. The Suicide Squad’s been compared to movies like Black Widow, which made $80 million at the domestic box office in its opening weekend — but that movie wasn’t offered to subscribers for free, instead being offered on Disney Premier Access for $30. Oh, and not to mention, movies whose openings out-performed The Suicide Squad, like Black Widow, F9, and A Quiet Place Part II, didn’t open as the resurging COVID-19 pandemic spawned new mask mandates. It’s impossible to say for sure, but if The Suicide Squad was released a couple of months ago, the conversation might be very different. Simply put, there were a lot of reasons to just stay at home and watch James Gunn’s latest.
And, from what Warner Bros. is saying, a lot of people did just that. HBO Max reported that, without revealing specific numbers, The Suicide Squad had the second-most-viewed premiere on the streaming platform (with the #1 spot reportedly going to Mortal Kombat). There’s no way to know how many of those viewers would’ve otherwise bought a ticket at the theater, but there’s also no denying that it’s an important factor, in addition to the unfortunate timing with the Delta variant.
There are other factors at play here, too. It’s certainly possible that general audiences are getting DC-fatigue, as the similarly Harley-fronted Birds of Prey earned a disappointing $201.8 million worldwide, and we don’t even have a clue what the numbers for Zach Snyder’s Justice League look like (or how much money it might’ve lost WB). Plus, it had an R-rating, and lacked a bankable star like Will Smith, in addition to the lingering negative aftertaste from the poorly received 2016 movie. The Suicide Squad was always going to be a risk, pandemic or not.
The sad reality is that we don’t yet know when things will be back to “normal," or when people will feel comfortable heading to the theaters for good again. The recovery of the box office has no doubt been rockier than many analysts hoped it would be by this time in the year. What we do know is that consumers are getting used to seeing movies where and when they want them, and the dominance of streaming in the entertainment landscape isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. By meeting the audience where they want to be met — you know, in the safety of their own living rooms — Warner Bros. is taking a bet on a longer game, but it’s one that’s in line with the trends of the industry.
Basically, don’t call this strategy a suicide mission just yet.